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Eschaton Immanent

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Oil Production and the Collapse of Industrial Civilization May. 1st, 2004 @ 02:46 am
misterp
The Peak of World Oil Production and The Road to the Olduvai Gorge--Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D claims that "the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal 100 years." By analyzing the data involved in energy production vs. usage, and the dwindling amount of oil we've got left in the earth, it looks like we're headed for an energy crisis that will make the oil shortage of the 1970s look like a blown fuse.

I particularly like the timeline:
(1) 1930 => Industrial Civilization began when (ê) reached 30% of its peak value. (2) 1979 => ê reached its peak value of 11.15 boe/c. (3) 1999 => The end of cheap oil. (4) 2000 => Start of the "Jerusalem Jihad". (5) 2006 => Predicted peak of world oil production (Figure 1, this paper). (6) 2008 => The OPEC crossover event (Figure 1). (7) 2012 => Permanent blackouts occur worldwide. (8) 2030 => Industrial Civilization ends when ê falls to its 1930 value.

Note 2030 as the date of the collapse of Industrial Civilization. Thom Hartmann, in his excellent book The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight, seems to concur. See this excerpt: We're Made of Ancient Sunlight. By the way, this is a great book that everyone should read. Similar to Ishmael, by Daniel Quinn, but told in nonfiction form.

Something else just turned up in this area: Pig Manure Can Become Crude Oil. Apparently, this guy has figured out a way to turn manure into oil, which can be used to generate electricity. What will this mean for our doomsday scenario? Perhaps our civilization will collapse in 2031 instead of 2030.
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» Introduction
This is my attempt to create a log of events and information that are somehow related to the concept of apocalypse, whether that be a good or bad thing. Apocalypse, as I see it, does not necessarily mean a catastrophe; it could mean a radical change in culture, or a shift in our perception of the world as a whole. In particular, I predict a shift from a rational, Apollonian world view to a more magical, metaphorical, Dionysian world view, over the next century. This journal will collect items of note related to this concept.

The journal is a community but at this point I'm the only one who can post entries. This may change in the future. Anyone can feel free to comment.

I'll start this off by posting a few links that I've already collected.
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